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Ice age and Public enemies tracking

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Post by thswrestler160 Tue Jun 30, 2009 11:36 pm

well since no one else started it

First numbers from the weekend warrior

1. Ice age 48.5 77/5day 170 total
2. Transformers 46.8
3. Public Enemies 28.6 45/5day 90-100 total
4. Hangover 11.9
5. Proposal 11.0

doesnt that seem alittle low to you guys

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Post by geezer9687 Tue Jun 30, 2009 11:44 pm

Yeah, it really does for Ice Age at least. Probably Transformers as well.
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Post by nickb1016 Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:09 am

It all seems a little low.

Up has been out long enough for Ice Age to make a strong debut. The second Ice Age opened in march with about 68million. Thats one of the stongest animated starts outside of Shrek, Nemo, the Incredibles, and The Simpsons. The 4th of July is on a friday so even it takes a hit, it still has Saturday and Sunday to recover. I think a 5 Day approaching 90million could happen for this. And a final gross of 170 mill seems low with nothing aimed at younger kids until G Force. 225mill total seems more likely.

Since there isnt any tracking out for Public Enemies its hard to say what will happen. Im inclined to think that this could open around 35million for 3day and a 50 million 5 day. But the reviews for this are pretty mixed, and unlike Ice Age and Transformers this is one where the reviews might actually matter. But it is the first thing aimed at adults since Pelham. So im going stick with my probably too high guess.


Transformers 2 has yet to show signs of a huge drop off coming, we can be more sure as the week moves on. So if it keeps up its monster pace it should see a drop of around 55% to about 50 million. The drop would be much higher had it been a 3 day opening but it early launch should soften the weekend to weekend decline.


The Proposal didnt hold all that well but given that it was in the face of Transformers it should hold much better this weekend.

The Hangover should also hold a lot better this weekend and it needs to before Bruno steals some thunder next weekend.

My Predictions

1. Ice Age 65.5 (90.4 5 day)
2. Transformers 49.8
3. Public Enemies 34.2 (51.3 5 day)
4. The Proposal 12.9
5. The Hangover 11.5

Im usually too high but I like to be optimistic

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Post by Keyser Soze Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:25 am

That could put Transformers between 290 and 300 by the end of its second weekend. Anyone still not seeing it reaching 400 with those kinds of numbers?
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Post by BanksIsDaFuture Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:32 am

Keyser Soze wrote:That could put Transformers between 290 and 300 by the end of its second weekend. Anyone still not seeing it reaching 400 with those kinds of numbers?

It's entirely possible. At the end of its second weekend, Wolverine had made $130M and seems to have topped out at $177M.
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Post by Keyser Soze Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:36 am

Using the same %'s, that would have Transformers top out at 408.
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Post by Shrykespeare Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:02 am

Well, we'll see how many people are still going to see Transformers once HP6 comes out.
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Post by geezer9687 Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:52 am

I think Ice age and Public Enemies are going to cause that number to come down. Its going to lose quite a few repeat viewings.
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Post by IPKI$$ Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:49 am

Oh, it's Johnny Depp and extinct talking animals that will keep people from seeing Transformers a second time...Here I was thinking seeing it the first time would keep them from seeing it a second time.
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Post by geezer9687 Thu Jul 02, 2009 4:52 am

Well, That will keep me from seeing it a second time.... but I'm talking about the majority public who seemed to actually like the movie.
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Post by IPKI$$ Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:24 am

True enough...I mean, I can't fully judge because I won't see it as I turned off the first one before the 45 minute mark, but just basing on what i've heard. There was actually this pretty funny reveiw of it on yahoo where this guy lists his top 10 Transformers2 questions, and I could've only read that and it would keep me from seeing it even if i was interested...The words Robot Heaven are all I need to hear to boycott a movie.
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Post by BanksIsDaFuture Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:21 am

Even if people liked it, I think it was hard to sit through more than once.
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Post by Buscemi Thu Jul 02, 2009 2:13 pm

It's only been out for a week but Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen already has a DVD release date. The scheduled date is November 10th.
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Post by thswrestler160 Thu Jul 02, 2009 8:21 pm

DHD estimates

wed
iceage 14
transformers 11
public enemies 8

3 day
Ice age 45 just behind transformers. 60/5day
public enemies 30 45/5day

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Post by J.I. Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:10 am

Keyser Soze wrote:That could put Transformers between 290 and 300 by the end of its second weekend. Anyone still not seeing it reaching 400 with those kinds of numbers?
Dude, they added Puerto Rican numbers to the Wednesday box office to get the 5-day over $200 million. All this has to do is get to $390 million and Paramount will push it over.

Also good but not great for the openers.
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Post by Buscemi Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:28 am

I don't understand why they have Transformers beating Ice Age for the weekend despite the fact that Ice Age was number one on Wednesday. Don't family films usually win the five-day weekend after being number one on Wednesday?
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Post by J.I. Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:34 am

Well it was its opening day but I think it will still win.
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Post by Buscemi Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:43 am

My point exactly. Family films are legs films that usually post better numbers in the days to come.
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Post by nickb1016 Fri Jul 03, 2009 11:56 am

i would like to point that Ice Age 2 was rather front loaded for a family film, but i do expect it to easily beat Transformers.

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Post by nickb1016 Fri Jul 03, 2009 8:30 pm

and another thing in regards to the drop for transformers. Despite the backlash it is getting it is probably going to stay above 50million. A good comparison for this franchise is Pirates of the Carribean. The first films in both franchise were suprise hits that came out of almost nowhere and both finished with well over 300 million. They both also brought something new that movie goers had not seen before. And neither really had any big stars.

both franchises rushed out a new bigger sequel and they both were too long, too loud, and had ridiculous story lines. Despite the well known fact that they were inferior to their predecesors, Dead Man's Chest opened with a then record breaking 135 million (over 150million adjusted) and held on strong for a 423 million total (464 million adjusted). Revenge of the Fallen also had an equally impressive 5 day launch of 200 million.

We dont yet know how Transformers will preform, but I think there is enough good will left over from the first film to carry it close to the 450million mark. But when they go for 3 there will be some serious backlash (like At Worlds End) if it fails to deliver.

Its not a perfect comparison...Pirates was a bigger hit, had bigger stars by the time DMC came out, and DMC was a little better than Fallen. But it is a good example of a franchise that lives off the success of the first film

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Post by geezer9687 Fri Jul 03, 2009 8:49 pm

That is a good example to use nick. Very nice comparison.
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Post by BanksIsDaFuture Fri Jul 03, 2009 9:27 pm

Good example. I hated DMC almost as much as I hated Tf2.
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Post by transformers2 Fri Jul 03, 2009 10:07 pm

i was proably the one person that loved Dead Mans Chest. I thought it was fantastic. Just as good as the first one IMO. Worlds End though... that was kind of a letdown.
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Post by nickb1016 Fri Jul 03, 2009 10:47 pm

I dont think Dead Man's Chest was as bad as Fallen, but it could have been better. It is a little weird that you wouldnt like At World's End...it was just a continuation of Chest. But at least the plot to Dead Man's Chest and At Worlds End attempted to make sense. I thought transformers was entertaining but it was a really lazy effort. Just small things like when the 5 decepticons go down to save Megatron and the submarine says that it is tracking 5. While down there they kill one and give his parts to Megatron. But on the way back up the sub still tracks 6. Out of all the people working on this movie, nobody could do simple math? And the fact that our planet would need to be destroyed for some special kind of WD-40 came off as just stupid to me. It also ripped off alot of other franchises like National Treasure and Lord of the Rings (tell me Jetfire is not a rip off of the tree guys from the 2 Towers)

Like I said it was an entertaining movie, but not really a good one. Just go read all the mistakes made...http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1055369/goofs
some are nitpicking but some are really stupid on the part of the film makers

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Post by jess_sayin Sun Jul 05, 2009 2:39 am

Well, it has been raining all day where I live (Chicago area). Fourth of July is a complete washout. Maybe the box office numbers will be a little better than expected for today.
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