W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

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W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by W on Fri May 29, 2009 10:31 am

Since I'm kicking ass in box office right now, I'll start a thread where I put up my thoughts about films coming out in the next few weeks and let you know whether I believe its worth it or not. Every week I'll update and add another week onto it. I do things a little different than most, though. I don't like to name prices, just whether its a good pick up for the BO game or not. This is for BO ONLY parentheses = Range of possibilities. June Price/May Price/April Price:

6/5 Land of the Lost $20/20/24--(Not worth the price - barely worth the price) I think it has a decent chance to be a 5x multiplier at $20, but it'll be close either way. You can find a better pick, but if you only have 1 film left and have $20 to spend, it'd probably be worth it. If you have two slots left, use them both instead of taking this.
The Hangover $10/7/6--(can't miss pick - must have pick) Take this film! The low possibility is that it is worth the price no matter what it is. No way it makes less than $50 M, even if it has record drops. I think it could beat Land of the Lost in total BO. Could be this year's Superbad, but will at least be this summer's Obsessed.
My Life in Ruins $5/4/5--(semi-flop - great value) Tracking on HSX for under $12 M for 4 weeks, and it wouldn't be horrible at the price it is. I'm going with a low flop on this one. Its sad because this one had the potential, if advertised, to capitalize on "My Big Fat Greek Wedding"'s success. Why greenlight what's basically a sequel (though I don't think it has anything to do with the other one) and not use the first?
Away We Go $4/4/4 (semi-flop - chance for 10x) I'm going with the semi-flop on this one, but if it gets good reviews during its limited run, $40 M could be possible.

6/12 The Taking of Pelham 1-2-3 $17/17/15--(Worth the price, barely) You'd expect more out of a Denzel/Travolta film. Advertized out the butt, but no one cares for the trailers. If you have $20 and one film left, go with Land of the Lost, though I don't recommend that as a first option either.
Imagine That $9/8/6 (worth the price - great, though not excellent, pick) I'd take this film. I don't foresee a "Meet Dave" scenerio. Worst case scenerio: It will be worth the price. Best case scenerio: 8x mulitplier. and you can't ask for too much more.

6/19 Year One $17/24/11 (don't even think about it - worth the price - barely a good pick) I wouldn't touch it except maybe in April leagues. It could hit $100, but I doubt it. It'll probably top out at $60-75 M which would make it barely worth it in the newest leagues.
The Proposal $12/12/8 (barely worth the price - great pick) I'm very high on this one here. Though out of sight, Sandra Bullock is pretty good at the romantic comedy BO. Ryan Reynolds is hot right now. It'll turn out very well if you take it.
Whatever Works $5/4/2 (don't even think about it - you're crazy not to grab it) I have no clue what this is going to do. Maybe in a couple of weeks we'll know.

6/26 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (worth the price - you're crazy not to take it) Leaning more towards the "you're crazy not to take it" side. The first one had a 4.5 day take of over $150 making a $250 a shoe in, so it'll be overly worth it. It could hit $400 M. Possibly the must have of the season...
My Sister's Keeper $8/8/4 (don't touch it - don't touch it) There's a reason these type of films are straight to dvd releases (see "The Ultimate Gift"). No, Cameron Diaz won't save it. People want to laugh, people want to see stuff blow up, people want to watch people beat up other people. That's about it.

After 6/5 I'll add another week.


Last edited by W on Wed Jul 15, 2009 8:42 pm; edited 5 times in total

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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by W on Fri May 29, 2009 10:33 am

Oh, I was going to add my top five worth their price for the June season.

1. Hangover
2. The Proposal
3. Transformers
4. Harry Potter
5. Imagine That

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... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by transformers2 on Fri May 29, 2009 4:25 pm

good work W! i found it to be very informative and well written.
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by Buscemi on Fri May 29, 2009 4:33 pm

I did a similar analysis but I listed the only sure things as being Pelham and Transformers. Everything else can go either way.

Meanwhile, I see the biggest flop being Year One. I really do not see this film appealing to anyone. It seems more like The Love Guru than anything else (even Jack Black's character looks similar to Mike Myers' character). A close second is Land Of The Lost. The PG-13 rating and an ad campaign promoting to the wrong audience (Frat Packers instead of families and stoners) will hurt it badly.

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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by W on Fri May 29, 2009 6:57 pm

I think the only sure things are The Hangover and Transformers. I still need to get my slates in for next month... I had them in a notepad where all I had to do was cut and paste into a PM. Well, my wife took the computer, so I have to do it all over again... The bonus is that I got a new HP that's running pretty good (though the crappy internet connection will cut down a super-computer).

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W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by JackO on Fri May 29, 2009 7:35 pm

Good job W. Maybe you can take Mr. I's job?

I do want to add one thing. I think we are going to see some definite flops in June and LOTL is the first on my list. It has a severe identity crisis. Is it a family film? If it is, then why is Danny McBride feeling up Anna Friel? It's not in 3D or Imax, so there goes the JttCotE comparisons. It's based off a tv show from like the 1960s, so where are the fanboys? And then you add in The Hangover buzz and I ain't touching it with 40 foot pole.
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by W on Fri May 29, 2009 7:49 pm

Yeah, I specifically said it wouldn't be a great pick, but of all the ones in its price range, I would take it. Year One and Pelham won't fare better. I myself am taking a few smaller films such as The Proposal and Imagine That... and of course The Hangover. Instead. But, if you think you need a second tier blockbuster priced selection, that's the one (maybe Bruno, but that's so far out right now that I can't feel what its going to do yet).

My take is that it will get enough frat packers and families whose parents grew up on it to hit $80-100 M to make it barely worth the price, though I wouldn't take it.

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... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by Keyser Soze on Fri May 29, 2009 9:33 pm

[quote="JackO"] It's based off a tv show from like the 1960s, [quote]

It was actually on TV from 1973 - 1975. I was a huge fan of the show, and I have less than zero interest in seeing this movie. That alone should tell you how badly they have messed this up. As someone stated earlier, the only thing this movie will have in common with the TV show are the characters names, the Sleestack, and Chakka. Maybe they'll name the dinosaurs Alice and Grumpy, and maybe they won't. I'll never know because I'm not even sure it'll be worth a $1 Redbox rental.

Didn't they learn from Semi-Pro that you can't just put Will Ferrell in a movie and expect it to be a hit?
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by geezer9687 on Fri May 29, 2009 9:36 pm

Good work W

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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by mfrendo on Fri May 29, 2009 9:59 pm

Very thoughtful analysis, W. Made me rethink some things.

I'm going to take Whatever Works myself. VCB was a great pick for PTA last year, as far as Woody Allen is concerned. Add to that the fact that it stars Larry David, coming off of Curb Your Enthusiasm, and that it opens in NY/LA first, and I see a pretty great pick there.
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by undeadmonkey on Fri May 29, 2009 10:46 pm

I've been thinking that The Proposal has a big chance to breakout all along. Though not a lot of people have agreed so far
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by W on Sat May 30, 2009 1:45 am

undeadmonkey wrote:I've been thinking that The Proposal has a big chance to breakout all along. Though not a lot of people have agreed so far

I do, take it over any other romcom this summer.

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... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by undeadmonkey on Sat May 30, 2009 1:50 am

oh, i have it on almost all slates.
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by W on Tue Jun 09, 2009 9:15 pm

Well, last week I was 2/3. I said LOTL would be barely worth the price (or close to it). I said that The Hangover "could be this year's Superbad." I said My Life in Ruins would flop. Away we go is too small right now to tell. Who's stock is rising/falling? Take a look.

6/12 The Taking of Pelham 1-2-3 $17/17/15--(STOCK DOWN: barely not worth the price - barely worth the price) Combine this with extra cash to grab a larger film. That's the way to go. This is going to be a Denzel $60-$80 M film, and that's just not good enough for me.
Imagine That $9/8/6 (STOCK DOWN: not worth the price - decent pick) Starts looking worse and worse as a pick. I think it'll be worth it now, barely. $40-50 M overall. I'm going to look for a different film to throw in at this price, possibly Time Traveler's Wife. I don't like any other picks at this price right now, so I'll probably stay with it.

6/19 Year One $17/24/11 (STOCK DOWN: Don't touch it - barely worth it) Chances of it hitting $100 M are slim. It may be a good value at $11 for 3 weeks of gross. If it hits $75 in the newest leagues, it's barely worth it. If you take it for $24, you are insane.
The Proposal $12/12/8 (STOOCK =: barely worth the price - great pick) I'm very high on this one here. Though out of sight, Sandra Bullock is pretty good at the romantic comedy BO. Ryan Reynolds is hot right now. It'll turn out very well if you take it.
Whatever Works $5/4/2 (STOCK DOWN: don't touch it - worth the price) I looked and VCB only made $23 M. There's no buzz for WW like there was for VCB prior to its release. This would have to do better than VCB to have its $5 price tag justified. Don't see it happening.

6/26 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (STOCK UP: you're crazy not to take it) The winning slate in the June Leagues will have this film and The Hangover on it. If you don't have it, you will not win. In the April-June leagues, it is $150 M (or more) for $20 and will win a lot of leagues for a lot of people.
My Sister's Keeper $8/8/4 (STOCK = don't touch it - don't touch it) There's a reason these type of films are straight to dvd releases (see "The Ultimate Gift"). No, Cameron Diaz won't save it. People want to laugh, people want to see stuff blow up, people want to watch people beat up other people. That's about it.

7/1 Ice Age: DOTD $34/$32 (worth the price) It'll be a good pick, but I think there are much better ones for a few dollars more (Potter/Transformers is what I'm thinking of).
Public Enemies $25/$24 (Don't touch it-Worth the Price) Looks like a great film, but I believe its priced too high. Its basically a western set in the mid-west and you know how often those westerns hit big. It may hit $100 M, but much higher than that? I'm not so sure.

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... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by mfrendo on Tue Jun 09, 2009 10:03 pm

Prettyt good analysis, W. I think Whatever Works is a good Ult pick, but not so much BO. VCB had major PTA last year, and this one has Larry David too.
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Tue Jun 09, 2009 10:36 pm

The Proposal will be huge of course. But I just noticed that the only other rom-com of the summer (The Ugly Truth) is rated R. What the hell is Sony thinking on that one?
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by geezer9687 on Tue Jun 09, 2009 10:40 pm

Better Box office pick for $2 in the April-June season, Moon or Whatever Works?

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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by W on Wed Jun 10, 2009 1:12 am

I want to say Moon. I actually was at the theater Saturday and heard some (real, as opposed to moviefreaks) talking about it. I think Whatever Works will still be extremely limited when the end of the season comes, but really small films like this are a guess since you really don't know how many theaters they'll be in during which weeks.

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... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by Buscemi on Wed Jun 10, 2009 2:03 am

I see The Time Traveler's Wife getting crushed at the box office. There's probably a reason why it was delayed from Christmas into the dregs of August.

I'd say District 9 and Bandslam are better picks for that weekend.

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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by Keyser Soze on Wed Jun 10, 2009 2:07 am

From what I've read recently, this tells me that The Time Traveler's Wife will be a mega hit.
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by transformers2 on Wed Jun 10, 2009 3:36 am

im with Keyser highly sucessful book could be a big hit.
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by Keyser Soze on Wed Jun 10, 2009 3:40 am

Actually, I was going with the fact that Buscemi thinks it will tank a smy reasoning, but the book thing is pretty good too
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed Jun 10, 2009 3:51 am

As far as BO goes, I think all the movies of 8/14 should be ignored. They'll all fail to varying degrees, and I think G.I. Joe, Julie and Julia, and Funny People will still hold 1-3 that weekend.
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by W on Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:08 am

Last week I got 1.5/2 right. Pelham was fairly predictable Box Office-wise. No matter if it hit first or third, it'd be close to being a worthwhile pick, i.e. one that won't destroy your slate, thought not a good pick by any stretch of the imagination. I nailed that one. On Imagine that, I said it would be the same decent pick, but to look at other options in its price range. You could give me 1/2, but I'm being optomistic. Smile Here's this week's picks:

6/19 Year One $17/24/11 (STOCK = Don't touch it - barely worth it) I still think it won't go much past $80 M at the high end, I'm thinking more like $60 M. I only see this as a viable option for April-June leagues and even there I went with something else. Other than that, stay away. You are still insane if you shell out $24 for it.
The Proposal $12/12/8 (STOOCK DOWN: barely worth the price - good pick) I'm not as high as I was on this pick, but I'm still leaning to "good" (last week it was "great". I don't think this one will be a Hangover-style slate breaker, but I don't think you can lose with this pick. I look for worst case scenerios that break even and I believe this is one of those.
Whatever Works $5/4/2 (STOCK DOWN: don't touch it - almost worth it) The best case scenerio of this film is to make $15-20 M overall. The worst case is $2 M. I just don't see the upside.

6/26 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $44/43/20 (STOCK =: you're crazy not to take it) Take this film all the way to the bank. If you only take one blockbuster in BO, this has to be it. The first one hit $320 M and that will be the floor for this one. If WOM is good, ceiling is just over $400 M. Best cutoff bargain since you got two weeks of TDK for $19. Just grab it.
My Sister's Keeper $8/8/4 (STOCK = don't touch it - don't touch it) Blah, blah, blah. Should have been straight to DVD. Blah, Cameron Diaz won't save it... Blah.

7/1 Ice Age: DOTD $34/$32 (STOCK = UP worth the price - good pick) It'll be a good pick, may even fight Potter. I'm thinking of grabbing it instead of Harry. I'll know after some research in the next couple of weeks.
Public Enemies $25/$24 (Stock = Don't touch it-Worth the Price) Looks good, but you can find better picks in this price range. It may not even hit $100 M, and even if it does, the best case scenerio right now is that it barely covers its cost. I don't like to work that way.

7/10 Bruno $19/17 (worth the price - great pick) Looks like a $100 M grosser to me. If it does, and it will, its worth it. Just how worth it will depend on WOM. It could hit $140-150 like some other comedies this year, but the closer to the $100-120 M range, the more probable.
I Love You, Beth Cooper $6/8 (don't touch it - decent, though nowhere near good, pick) There's not many decent looking picks in this price range. Let's pray that the reason you're taking this film is because you want to fit The Hangover, Potter, and Transformers 2 on the same slate. There's not really any other reason for it.

That's it for this week, I'll be fitting Potter and Transformers on next time for one week only reunion from a couple of years ago.

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... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: W's Box Office Bonanza (7/17 Weekend Edition)

Post by W on Thu Jun 18, 2009 5:15 am

Whoops! Forgot to put "6/19 Editon" on there. Maybe that's why....

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