Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by NSpan on Fri May 08, 2009 4:35 am

JackO wrote:
Shrykespeare wrote:Damn... what a pickle for the April leagues.

Do I go with Star Trek, wait for Terminator, or do a Transformers/Pelham combination?? Decisions, decisions!

Eh, my mind is made up.

if i wasn't already locked-in to my slate, i know how i would've gone about it

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Buscemi on Fri May 08, 2009 7:55 am

I just saw Star Trek with a large audience of Trekkers and non-Trekkers alike. Let's just say that this movie is going to be big.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by packpaljs on Fri May 08, 2009 8:22 am

Do you still hold your 71M 4 Day total or would you estimate higher than that now???
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Buscemi on Fri May 08, 2009 8:25 am

I'm actually going with $80 million 4-day now with some very strong legs.

Everyone in the theatre loved it. They even applauded at the end. People were lined up for the next shows and you can even expect some repeat viewings from many people who saw it tonight.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by JackO on Fri May 08, 2009 9:28 am

That would be 18M over MTC. I don't see that happening.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Shrykespeare on Fri May 08, 2009 12:08 pm

Just saw Star Trek. Wow, people. Just, wow. Swedgin was right on point. It is FANTASTIC. Here is a link to my review:

http://www.thelatestmoviereviews.com/2009/05/07/startrek.html#med

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Donte77 on Fri May 08, 2009 11:31 pm

I am floored at the reviews. I don't think I have seen one yet that wasn't positive.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Spectre on Fri May 08, 2009 11:52 pm

I ended up rocking it out on my Box Office slates but left it off in Ultimate because I think the competition in the coming weeks keeps its Top 5 relatively minimized. Hopefully the BO turnout is as good as the reviews. Can't wait to see it myself.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by silversurfer19 on Fri May 08, 2009 11:54 pm

Yeah, I think it will struggle to get too many top 5s because of its positioning, but it will probably have the best IMDB of the may releases and hopefully a decent BO.

Nice to see you around again Spectre, btw.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Spectre on Sat May 09, 2009 12:01 am

silversurfer19 wrote:Yeah, I think it will struggle to get too many top 5s because of its positioning, but it will probably have the best IMDB of the may releases and hopefully a decent BO.

Nice to see you around again Spectre, btw.

Thanks, glad to be around again surfer. Been pretty busy as of late and haven't had the chance to do much outside of playing the Super Leagues but hopefully that'll change.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by undeadmonkey on Sat May 09, 2009 12:03 am

Donte77 wrote:I am floored at the reviews. I don't think I have seen one yet that wasn't positive.

Rotten Tomatoes has 8 rotten reviews out of 188 for it. I am also pretty surprised

Spectre wrote:I ended up rocking it out on my Box Office slates but left it off in Ultimate because I think the competition in the coming weeks keeps its Top 5 relatively minimized. Hopefully the BO turnout is as good as the reviews. Can't wait to see it myself.


I added it to three of my may slates. It being one of the cheaper blockbusters, I was able to put Star Trek and Potter as anchors then fill the rest of my slate with a few pretty good picks. I'm hoping Angels and Demons bombs hard so ST can get extra top 5. Even if it doesn't, Star Trek has an IMDb of 8.4 and I'm expecting it to make at least $200M
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Spectre on Sat May 09, 2009 12:59 am

undeadmonkey wrote:I added it to three of my may slates. It being one of the cheaper blockbusters, I was able to put Star Trek and Potter as anchors then fill the rest of my slate with a few pretty good picks. I'm hoping Angels and Demons bombs hard so ST can get extra top 5. Even if it doesn't, Star Trek has an IMDb of 8.4 and I'm expecting it to make at least $200M

I think the IMDb is a lock to be great and the money should be $200M+ as well, but I'm deathly afraid of it going:

1. Star Trek
----------------
1. Angels and Demons
2. Star Trek
----------------
1. Terminator: Salvation
2. Night at the Museum 2
3. Angels and Demons
4. Star Trek
----------------
1. Up
2. Terminator: Salvation
3. Night at the Museum 2
4. Drag Me to Hell
5. Star Trek/Angels and Demons

for somewhere around 11-12 Top 5 and even less PTA. There's a distinct chance that with the great WOM it'll get, it'll have enough legs to score some more but frankly, I'm scared enough by the possibility of the above scenario to pass in Ultimate at least. Its positioning is really what's hurting its chances IMO.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Buscemi on Sat May 09, 2009 1:02 am

Actually, I expect it to be:

1.Star Trek

-----

1.Star Trek
2.Angels and Demons

------

1.Terminator Salvation
2.Night At The Museum 2
3.Star Trek
4.Dance Flick

------

1.Up
2.Terminator Salvation
3.Drag Me To Hell
4.Night At The Museum 2
5.Star Trek

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by silversurfer19 on Sat May 09, 2009 1:08 am

At best, 14 top 5's would only just make it worth it's value. But that's if it gets those positions Boussh.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Sat May 09, 2009 1:53 am

Ummm, guys, if you do the math, none of the May movies are really going to pull in more than 11-12 Top 5s. Unless something breaks out and wins two in a row, there won't be much separation in each of them.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by jess_sayin on Sat May 09, 2009 1:59 am

Star Trek did 7 mil on Thurs.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Spectre on Sat May 09, 2009 2:25 am

geezer9687 wrote:Ummm, guys, if you do the math, none of the May movies are really going to pull in more than 11-12 Top 5s. Unless something breaks out and wins two in a row, there won't be much separation in each of them.

Depends on where you think the busts are.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Sat May 09, 2009 3:00 am

I honestly don't think anything is going to perform poorly, and each of them will pull in at least 150 million, and not more than 225, except Terminator, which I see being the biggest at 260, but still losing in its second weekend to Up.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by undeadmonkey on Sat May 09, 2009 4:50 am

Spectre wrote:
undeadmonkey wrote:I added it to three of my may slates. It being one of the cheaper blockbusters, I was able to put Star Trek and Potter as anchors then fill the rest of my slate with a few pretty good picks. I'm hoping Angels and Demons bombs hard so ST can get extra top 5. Even if it doesn't, Star Trek has an IMDb of 8.4 and I'm expecting it to make at least $200M

I think the IMDb is a lock to be great and the money should be $200M+ as well, but I'm deathly afraid of it going:

for somewhere around 11-12 Top 5 and even less PTA. There's a distinct chance that with the great WOM it'll get, it'll have enough legs to score some more but frankly, I'm scared enough by the possibility of the above scenario to pass in Ultimate at least. Its positioning is really what's hurting its chances IMO.


Your probably right and i'm a teensy bit worried, but like geezer said the others wont get much more TOP5 either. Also with a cheaper blockbuster, I was able to take a few midsized picks like Drag Me To Hell and The Proposal to help with top5. I can see UP possibly winning two weekends, but my gut is saying that it has a ceiling of $200M, while Star Trek has a shot to do more if the WOM is good. Well I guess you could say the same about UP too.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Sat May 09, 2009 5:13 am

I don't think Up will beat Land of the Lost in its second weekend. Land of the Lost should make at least 30-35 million. Up should do the same top 5 as Star Trek, but make probably a little less, which is why I recently switched them in the April Ultimates.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by undeadmonkey on Sat May 09, 2009 6:17 am

Hmm, I actually went with Transformers and Terminator in the April leagues. Meanwhile, I'm glad I have Wolverine in only one slate, It's not holding up too well in the midweek numbers. I bet it tops out at $200M, which to me is not enough to warrant its price tag in some leagues.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by JackO on Sat May 09, 2009 9:07 am

I only made one change and that was earlier to add Drag Me To Hell on more slates. I don't get this mass hysteria.

Mason

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Star Trek (Paramount) - $26M, $6,755 PTA, $33M
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) - $9.15M, $2,231 PTA, $111.77M cume
3. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) - $3.05M, $961 PTA, $22.84M
4. Obsessed (Sony) - $2M, $769 PTA, $51.64M cume
5. NEW – Next Day Air (Summit) - $1.25M, $1,098 PTA, $1.25M cume
6. 17 Again (Warner Bros) - $1.15M, $396 PTA, $50.91M cume
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1M, $478 PTA, $20.89M cume
8. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $847,000, $388 PTA, $184.36M cume
9. Earth (Disney) - $697,000, $389 PTA, $24.29M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) - $690,000, $300 PTA, $72.35M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Star Trek (Paramount) - $69.68M, $18,103 PTA, $76.68M
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) - $30.05M, $7,326 PTA, $132.67M cume
3. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) - $10.06M, $3,170 PTA, $29.86M
4. Obsessed (Sony) - $6.25M, $2,402 PTA, $55.89M cume
5. 17 Again (Warner Bros) - $3.73M, $1,287 PTA, $53.49M cume
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.72M, $1,706 PTA, $187.24M cume
8. NEW – Next Day Air (Summit) - $3.55M, $3,120 PTA, $3.55M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) - $2.62M, $1,140 PTA, $74.29M cume
10. Earth (Disney) - $2.44M, $1,361 PTA, $26.03M cume
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Shrykespeare on Sat May 09, 2009 10:24 pm

Funny, the numbers I saw on Steve's blog are slightly different from the ones shown above:

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Star Trek (Paramount) - $26M, $6,755 PTA, $33M
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) - $9.15M, $2,231 PTA, $111.77M cume
3. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) - $3.05M, $961 PTA, $22.84M
4. Obsessed (Sony) - $2M, $769 PTA, $51.64M cume
5. NEW – Next Day Air (Summit) - $1.25M, $1,098 PTA, $1.25M cume
6. 17 Again (Warner Bros) - $1.15M, $396 PTA, $50.91M cume
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1M, $478 PTA, $20.89M cume
8. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $847,000, $388 PTA, $184.36M cume
9. Earth (Disney) - $697,000, $389 PTA, $24.29M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) - $690,000, $300 PTA, $72.35M cume


EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Star Trek (Paramount) - $69.68M, $18,103 PTA, $76.68M
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) - $27.95M, $6,814 PTA, $130.57M cume
3. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) - $10.06M, $3,170 PTA, $29.86M
4. Obsessed (Sony) - $6.25M, $2,402 PTA, $55.89M cume
5. 17 Again (Warner Bros) - $4.5M, $1,550 PTA, $54.26M cume
6. NEW – Next Day Air (Summit) - $4.1M, $3,603 PTA, $4.1M cume
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.6M, $1,722 PTA, $23.49M cume
8. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.55M, $1,625 PTA, $187.06M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) - $2.62M, $1,140 PTA, $74.29M cume
10. Earth (Disney) - $2.44M, $1,361 PTA, $26.03M cume

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by JackO on Sat May 09, 2009 11:25 pm

They look exactly the same to me.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Sun May 10, 2009 2:15 am

Looks like the new numbers has Wolverine at 27 instead of 30 and Next Day Air at 6 instead of 3.5. Not that much of a difference though.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

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