Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Shrykespeare on Wed May 06, 2009 11:01 am

What geezer said...

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by brockman81 on Wed May 06, 2009 6:29 pm

Banks wrote:

3 - Next Day Air - $15 mill

Boxofficemojo.com is saying only 1,000 theaters for this movie...no way it will hit 15 million with that theater count. If anyone has this on their slates, now would be a good time to drop it. The imdb will be awful too.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by brockman81 on Wed May 06, 2009 6:44 pm

Wait, I just checked imdb and Next Day Air already has an 8.3?? Did this get released already, or has the fantaverse already started voting? lol!
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed May 06, 2009 6:47 pm

brockman81 wrote:Banks wrote:

3 - Next Day Air - $15 mill

Boxofficemojo.com is saying only 1,000 theaters for this movie...no way it will hit 15 million with that theater count. If anyone has this on their slates, now would be a good time to drop it. The imdb will be awful too.

Well, maybe not $15 million, that was probably just wishful thinking. But I'm not sure why people continue to underestimate urban audiences. I mean, I just read ComingSoon predictions where they said Next Day Air has no buzz or promotion. This is wrong, there are commercials all over MTV and BET, during the NBA playoffs, and all over my local hip-hop radio station (and I assume all over similiar stations across the country). I know that alot of internet movie fans don't have the same kind of interests as the average Black person, but letting personal interest or opinion get in the way of objectively predicting or discussing movies doesn't seem too wise.

You'd think after everyone pegged Obsessed as not making over $15 mill, and then having it reach damn near $30 mill OW, something would change.

And as far as this vs. Dance Flick, Buscemi, I think this'll do better. This has a much wider audience than a spoof dance movie.

And yes, the IMDb will be low. Now why it'll be low is a matter of opinion, I guess.

Sorry for the rant tongue
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Wed May 06, 2009 6:59 pm

But you have to admit, that 1000 theater count is usually a nail in the coffin Banks.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by packpaljs on Wed May 06, 2009 7:01 pm

I disagree, look at Tyler Perry movies, I think they normally open in 1100+ theatres and win the OW.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Wed May 06, 2009 7:08 pm

They open in just over 2000 theaters. Not 1100, its almost double. Plus, he has a built in audience.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed May 06, 2009 7:11 pm

geezer9687 wrote:But you have to admit, that 1000 theater count is usually a nail in the coffin Banks.

Yeah, that's why I said my $15 mill was probably a little too much. But damn, $3 million?

A lot of similar movies in the past have opened higher than that: Mo' Money in 1994 ($12 OW), Set It Off in 1996 ($8 OW), Malibu's Most Wanted in 2003 ($12 OW), CB4 in 1993 ($6 OW).

And then adjust those for inflation and I can't see Next Day Air not getting $7-$9 mill at least.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by packpaljs on Wed May 06, 2009 7:13 pm

Oops, that's right, but the first Tyler Perry movie opened at 30M in 2100 theatres, so if this opens in 1000+ it could rake in some, I'm just saying that it's not going to be a bust or nail in the coffin, but I think it will have some life. And being I have it on a couple slates it's wishful thinking.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by packpaljs on Wed May 06, 2009 7:14 pm

I just looked, Friday opened in 865 theatres and made 6.5M in 1995. Argument winner...........Banks, Packpal cheers
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Wed May 06, 2009 7:15 pm

I think 7-9 should be about right... You think Next Day Air is the next Friday? lol!

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by packpaljs on Wed May 06, 2009 7:17 pm

Well they already made Next Friday and the Friday after Next so this will have to be The Next Friday after the Next. haha
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed May 06, 2009 7:30 pm

geezer9687 wrote:I think 7-9 should be about right... You think Next Day Air is the next Friday? lol!

lol, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ice Cube pop up somewhere in there. It's not like he's super-busy making Are We Ever Gonna Be There Or Done Ever?!?
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by JackO on Wed May 06, 2009 8:17 pm

Shrykespeare wrote:If ANYONE has any movie reviews to send me, I'm in dire need. I need to get on the stick and write some more myself....

My bad. I have Wolverine in the docket. Should be in shortly.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Donte77 on Wed May 06, 2009 10:55 pm

Actually Next Day Air had a 9.0 IMDB with 100 votes. It has only dropped down to a low 8 recently. I think this one may escape and get a 6.5 or 7 overall. Which for a black comedy translates into a 9.1 Shawshank type score.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by W on Wed May 06, 2009 11:16 pm

That makes me feel pretty good...

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Buscemi on Thu May 07, 2009 1:55 am

Banks, half of those examples you provided occurred back when movies didn't even need to open in 3,000 theatres. So it was definitely easy for a movie to open in 800-1,100 theatres and win the weekend.

Also, expect the theatre count for Next Day Air to be even lower than 1,000. No cities seem to be playing the movies outside of a few in the big cities (for example, no theatres around here are even getting it).

Meanwhile, Dance Flick has far more appeal than Next Day Air. The directing team's last four movies hit over $50 million and it has crossover appeal. Next Day Air appeals solely to Guy Ritchie fans and people who thought that I Got The Hook-Up needed a remake.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by transformers2 on Thu May 07, 2009 2:41 am

Next Day Air is down to 7.7 but it will proably sneak out a 6+ and the theater near me is playing Next Day Air. I think it will 6-8 Mill it is getting a lot of advertising.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by packpaljs on Thu May 07, 2009 4:34 am

Buscemi wrote:Banks, half of those examples you provided occurred back when movies didn't even need to open in 3,000 theatres. So it was definitely easy for a movie to open in 800-1,100 theatres and win the weekend.

Also, expect the theatre count for Next Day Air to be even lower than 1,000. No cities seem to be playing the movies outside of a few in the big cities (for example, no theatres around here are even getting it).

Meanwhile, Dance Flick has far more appeal than Next Day Air. The directing team's last four movies hit over $50 million and it has crossover appeal. Next Day Air appeals solely to Guy Ritchie fans and people who thought that I Got The Hook-Up needed a remake.

I've been to Springfield several times, I'd say only about 5% of the population there would even be interested in this film. Laughing I look at Dance Flick as Superhero Movie, it's a few years too late. I mean most of the movie is making fun of a movie that came out 10 years ago (Save the last dance.) Plus is stars an up and comer, so I wouldn't bank on the same success as other Waynes Bros. movies.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Buscemi on Thu May 07, 2009 4:46 am

You may be right Pack but sometimes the area will get out of its racist attitude and actually watch something not starting some disgusting Aryan sack of shit.

I remember that Madea Goes To Jail did pretty well here. Same with Why Did I Get Married and Idlewild (which opened here two months after it was first released at the local art house). But usually, urban films flop here or don't come (fun fact: the first Friday never played in Springfield despite its box office success, however the sequels did play here and they did decently).

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by JackO on Thu May 07, 2009 5:33 am

How will Trek do this weekend?

Take a look at this:

Variety: http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118003271.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

In terms of "Star Trek's" opening weekend gross, Par insiders are predicting $50 million to $60 million domestically, and $25 million to $30 million (overseas). Rivals agree. Tracking shows younger demos less interested than adults, although the numbers are picking up for the under 18 crowd.

Weekend Warrior: http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weekendwarriornews.php?id=55089

1. Star Trek (Paramount) - $67.3 million N/A

Cinematical: http://www.cinematical.com/2009/05/06/box-office-beam-us-up-scotty/

Prediction: $82 million

Mason: http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/05/06/finaltracking58/
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 8-10
1. NEW – Star Trek (Paramount) - $65M (includes Thursday previews)
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) - $30.6M
3. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) - $8.8M
4. Obsessed (Sony) - $6.7M
5. NEW – Next Day Air (Summit) - $6M
6. 17 Again (Warner Bros) - $3.8M
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.7M
8. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.3M
9. Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) - $2.6M
10. Earth (Disney) - $2.4M

Finke also has 75M (as soon I post it, she changes it)
http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/weekend-prediction-star-trek-65m/


Last edited by JackO on Fri May 08, 2009 2:52 am; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Shrykespeare on Thu May 07, 2009 11:42 pm

Damn... what a pickle for the April leagues.

Do I go with Star Trek, wait for Terminator, or do a Transformers/Pelham combination?? Decisions, decisions!

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by mfrendo on Fri May 08, 2009 1:19 am

Shrykespeare wrote:Damn... what a pickle for the April leagues.

Do I go with Star Trek, wait for Terminator, or do a Transformers/Pelham combination?? Decisions, decisions!

Can we even go with Star Trek still, or is it locked, since it showings start tonight at 7?
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Shrykespeare on Fri May 08, 2009 1:59 am

You can add or subtract it up until midnight tonight.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by JackO on Fri May 08, 2009 2:51 am

Shrykespeare wrote:Damn... what a pickle for the April leagues.

Do I go with Star Trek, wait for Terminator, or do a Transformers/Pelham combination?? Decisions, decisions!

Eh, my mind is made up.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

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