Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by W on Tue May 12, 2009 10:30 am

Everyone stay away from Transformers 2. I heard it was going to only take $30 Million. Just Kidding... I would say Year One, Land of the Lost, G-Force, and Pelham are the most likely in that order. I don't see any Meet Dave/Love Guru/Speed Racer failures right now.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Tue May 12, 2009 10:35 am

I really don't either. I see a lot of middling hits, nothing special, nothing awful.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by W on Tue May 12, 2009 10:36 am

Besides Harry Potter and Transformers, you mean?

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Tue May 12, 2009 10:39 am

Well even for them I don't see them skyrocketing. I'd put Transformers at around 330 and Harry Potter at 280. Which for the top 2 movies of the year isn't anything spectacular.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Buscemi on Tue May 12, 2009 10:42 am

G-Force will do well. If Beverly Hills Chihuahua could do $90 million in October, imagine how much the same thing can do in 3-D and on a summer month.

Meanwhile, my guesses for the big summer flops:
The Hangover
Year One
The Proposal (New In Town meets Green Card? No thank you.)
My Sister's Keeper (I think a bald Cameron Diaz is one of the last things that people wanted to see.)
I Love You, Beth Cooper
The Ugly Truth
All Good Things (this would do well as an arthouse film but in an ultra wide release, no way)
Aliens In The Attic
The Time Traveler's Wife (The plot sounds decent but it's been delayed several times and it's from the director of Flightplan. Not a good sign.)
The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard (one of several hard to market indie films that Paramount is trying to dump, two others are Carriers and The Marc Pease Experience)
Pool Boys (first-time distributor + straight-to-video quality plot and actors = BOMB)
Post Grad
Gamer (How many times has this changed titles? First it was Game, then it was Citizen Game and now it's Gamer. Also the directors' Crank: High Voltage bombed last month.)
All About Steve (a six-month delay from an empty release date to a dumping ground is not a good sign)
Shanghai (September 4th? That is the best release date that the Weinsteins could up with? Especially since the director's last film made them $70 million.)
Carriers (Two years on the shelf and it's hard to market. Expect 600 theatres and a sub $1 million opening.)

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by W on Tue May 12, 2009 10:50 am

I don't know... With the year how it is so far, I wouldn't be completely surprised with $400 M and $350 M for T4 and HP. I think it's more possible for T4 than potter, though. But... The last Potter to open in July almost hit $300 couple that with the move (more anticipation) and the state of the year so far... I don't know.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by W on Tue May 12, 2009 10:51 am

Some of those you named, Buscemi, I'm not expecting anything out of (and neither is anyone else) so I could hardly call them flops unless it's near record breaking.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Tue May 12, 2009 10:54 am

Yeah, you could have stopped after the first 5 really. And I really think quality is going to rule the day. We are already seeing it with Wolverine and Star Trek. The better films are making the most money. Gran Torino and Taken are examples of this. It will be about the legs.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by mfrendo on Tue May 12, 2009 12:44 pm

geezer9687 wrote:Yeah, you could have stopped after the first 5 really. And I really think quality is going to rule the day. We are already seeing it with Wolverine and Star Trek. The better films are making the most money. Gran Torino and Taken are examples of this. It will be about the legs.

Paul Blart, Beverly Hills Chihuahua, Fast and Furious...better does not rule the day, at least not as a rule. In fact, it may be the exception...
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Tue May 12, 2009 12:58 pm

BHC was last year, Paul Blart was very well received amongst its target audience, and Fast and Furious dropped off huge. With that opening, if it was any good it would have made 200 million.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by Buscemi on Tue May 12, 2009 1:09 pm

That's not always the case. Hancock was a horrible movie but still managed to gross $225 million.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Tue May 12, 2009 1:11 pm

Oh I know, I was just referring to this year so far, it has seemed to hold up

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by W on Tue May 12, 2009 9:40 pm

Though you can't get this thing down to a perfect science, here's my thoughts.

We are not the typical movie-going crowd and neither are the fellows that rate films on the IMDB. Not by a longshot. Also, there are many, MANY different tastes and preferences.

With that in mind, the single most important factor in a films success is that people want to see it. I know that sounds like an obvious, but its true. Now, whether its how big the target audience is and how much intrest is generated in that audience pre opening day is what determines an opening weekend.

Legs are determined by numerous factors. Most importantly is how well it is recieved by the target audience. Secondly, how good a film is in general. Third is word of mouth. Other factors include Oscar consideration, fad factor, and others.

In conclusion, OW is determined by size of target audience and the audience's intrest pre-OW. Legs are determined by how good a film in its target audience's mind, how good it is in general, and word of mouth.

So... Blart did well because its target audience was large, it had a large amount of intrest in that audience pre-OW, and it was percieved well by that audience.

Fast and Furious had a large target audience, a large amount of intrest in that audience, and good reviews by part of that audience, so it had a large OW and large drops.

Twilight had a small audience that was extremely interested, loved (or were at least mezmorized by) the film, gave great word of mouth, and made it into a fad bringing in more and more females.

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W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Tue May 12, 2009 9:51 pm

Good analysis W. Pretty spot on.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by brockman81 on Wed May 13, 2009 1:52 am

Damn, 7.5M for Star Trek on Monday...bigger than Wolverine's Monday total following its opening weekend...is it possible Start Trek will have the legs to top Wolverine in total BO?? If so, I'm going to throw my computer out of my 6 story office building window and follow it out.

I should have followed my gut and dropped Wolverine...sigh.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Wed May 13, 2009 1:59 am

Yeah, I'm pretty sure its a guarantee it will outgross Wolverine.

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Star Trek looking BIG

Post by Nycguy84 on Wed May 13, 2009 2:17 am

YES. Star Trek will definitely out gross Wolverine (and it's not easy saying that I'm a die hard Wolverine fan). 7.5 mil on Monday, Wolverine dropped nearly 70% on its 2nd weekend, I'd be surprised if Star Trek even drops 50% (42-47% most likely scenario). It will have Iron Man legs considering it has great word of mouth & 97% positive reviews on RT & 8.5 rating on IMDB.

I called a 300 mil. tally earlier in the year & some laughed at me on this website. 300 looks pretty good right now.

The question remains can Transformers pull off a big run and jump to 400 million?
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Wed May 13, 2009 2:45 am

I really don't think it will get to 300 million. even if it does have Iron Man holds, it will only get to about 265-280. 300 is still a stretch.

I don't think Transformers can hit 400, I think 330 is where it is headed.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by W on Wed May 13, 2009 6:27 am

Like I said, for it to hit $300 M, it has to do exactly what Batman Begins did... it won't.

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Star Trek = 300 Million

Post by Nycguy84 on Wed May 13, 2009 7:59 pm

Look at this way Iron Man got to 318 million & it didn't have the audience buzz factor prior to its release the way Star Trek had everyone talking. It's better reviewed than Iron Man & there's no hardcore fan base like the Trekkies (even though some % of Trekkies are resisting the Star Trek remake but I think eventually they'll all come around), the word of mouth is excellent like few films have had over the last 5 years, & J.J Abrams found a way to appeal to the hardcore fans & draw in the non-Trek fans. From Sunday's strong hold the day most big box office films take gigantic dives, & it showed it's drawing in the family crowds also.

I think it has Iron Man legs & will play all through June. The real indication is how it holds up against Terminator & Night at the Museum 2 because after that I don't see another blockbuster till Transformers picks up the mantle on the last week of June.

My prediction: Star Trek 295 - 310 domestic.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by JackO on Wed May 13, 2009 8:24 pm

There's a couple of problems with that.

Star Trek's OW audience was 65% males over 25. The exact same audience that Angels and Demons is going after.

The other is that it only has a 2 week Imax limited engagement, so there is a definite rush factor for that since NATM 2 is going to take all of the Imax screens come Memorial Day weekend.

The final problem is that Terminator: Salvation will take the 35% of OW audience that is under 25 when it opens.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Wed May 13, 2009 8:48 pm

Yeah, I just think the Terminator Salvation/NATM 2 Juggernaut weekend is going to crush everything that came before it. Myself, I plan on seeing Terminator, Star Trek, and Angels and Demons that weekend, because it will be the first weekend back at home. I think that unless Angels and Demons completely tanks, Star Trek won't get above 275, and probably won't get there. May is just too crowded. Last year we had Speed Racer bombing and Narnia underwhelming that left Iron Man open to its holds, I don't see that happening with A and D, T4 and NATM2

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by W on Wed May 13, 2009 9:58 pm

Umm... Speed Racer and Narnia aren't really the same crowd as Iron Man. In fact, Iron Man may have pulled older kids away from those two titles helping in their floppyness.

Off Topic: As I type this, Collin Cowherd is talking about the Hangover and calls it "compelling". Talked about Tyson and Phil Collins. "People have got to look this over. That is bizzare. Give the marketing director of this a RAISE."

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by undeadmonkey on Wed May 13, 2009 10:49 pm

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Star Trek will end up ahead of AD. First of all, I still haven't seen a trailer for A&D. Second Davinci Code was a snoozefest. The only reason it made over $200M is because of the controversy. Everyone was wondering what the big deal was. That was the only reason i saw it.

I dont think Star Trek will get to 300M. Even though I dont think it'll have competition from AD, much less Wolverine which will be forgotten by next week, it still has Terminator to contend with. Which i see as much more direct competition.
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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

Post by geezer9687 on Thu May 14, 2009 12:15 am

Iron Man didn't play to families or kids under 13? Really?

I actually really enjoyed The DaVinci Code and didn't see it because of any controversy. I saw it because I was too lazy to read the book that everyone said was so good. People say that Angels and Demons was even better, and I have no reason to not see it too. It will probably end up around 160. Obviously Star Trek will beat it, I don't think anyone ever said it wouldn't. But it will take an audience away that will see A and D instead of Star Trek again. I have seen plenty of tv spots for it as well.

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Re: Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

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