Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

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Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by geezer9687 on Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:03 am

Very simple, who ya got in this dog fight? Which one are you backing for a weekend win. Throw some figures out if you want.

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by packpaljs on Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:08 am

NO CONTEST! T4
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by A_Roode on Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:14 am

I'm going with comedy over action.
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by J.I. on Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:18 am

T4 even with a bigger Thursday than Indiana Jones.
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by thswrestler160 on Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:22 am

t4!!! with a solid 40 over natm2 4day

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by A_Roode on Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:26 am

Actually I must retract my earlier post. The weekend winner will be T4. NATM2 will win the war with better legs but T4 gets the battle.
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by undeadmonkey on Thu Apr 30, 2009 3:04 am

You know, I would almost agree with you on that A_Roode but I think UP will make that not happen.

I think Salvation will open with $110M 4-day and Night of the Museum 2 with $60M 3-day.
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by Donte77 on Thu Apr 30, 2009 3:36 am

I actually have both of them on a couple slates.
I think people are forgetting the fantastic legs of the first NatM. 30 mil OW with 250 total. That is some mini-titanic drops there. This one will do even better since it gets a summer release. I am thinking 60-70 OW and 240-260 total. Unless it is terrible, and UP is awesome. Then maybe 200M total.
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by A_Roode on Thu Apr 30, 2009 3:47 am

Comedy tends to be a safer bet for legs, even if it doesn't get the glory of the big opening weekend. I trust Ben Stiller a bit more than McG, but there's little doubt in my mind that they both crack 200.
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by Buscemi on Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:30 am

Terminator easily. The film has a better marketing campaign and really has no competition other than Star Trek in its third week. Meanwhile, Night At The Museum 2 will have one great week but drop against the competition of Up, Land Of The Lost and Imagine That for the next three weeks.

It's a no-brainer.

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by W on Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:49 am

I agree! Though I think NATM could do well, I don't think it will hit 250... And Wolverine's fourth weekend will beat Star Trek's third.

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by J.I. on Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:52 am

Donte77 wrote:I think people are forgetting the fantastic legs of the first NatM. 30 mil OW with 250 total. That is some mini-titanic drops there. This one will do even better since it gets a summer release. I am thinking 60-70 OW and 240-260 total. Unless it is terrible, and UP is awesome. Then maybe 200M total.
I really think that this will suffer the smae fate as past movies The Pink Panther 2 and Garfield 2, however, snce it is coming off of a way bigger original than those were, its still guarenteed to make $100 million, but not too much more.
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by silversurfer19 on Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:12 am

I'm gonna go with Terminator. NATM will suffer Narnia Fever and not translate it Christmas takings in the summer. And remember, movies generally have better legs in the winter, where as bigger drops are expected in the summer. I see it performing closer to Get Smart than Shrek 2.

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by JackO on Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:16 am

One is tracking at 80s for the 4 day and mid 60s 3 day. The other is tracking at 120s 5 day, and mid 60s 3 day. I'm going with NATM2 because frankly, there is no way in hell that Terminator can outgross Indy 4, and add on the Saturday through Monday boots from kids rather then declines from lack of fanboys and you have a very clear winner. NATM 2.

Plus, on May 18th, Fox is going to announce that Sarah Connor Chronicles is canceled. Buzzkill lol!

I think those expecting NATM 2 to do bomb will be in for a surprise. It's the first kid's film of the summer. If you think it's going to bomb, then you need to go back to box office school.
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by undeadmonkey on Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:36 am

Speed Racer was the first Kids film last year
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by silversurfer19 on Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:40 am

In fact, if you look at last year, animated movies were the only family orientated films to really succeeded. And Indy IV was PG-13, so not entirely family orientated.

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by NSpan on Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:11 am

silversurfer19 wrote:In fact, if you look at last year, animated movies were the only family orientated films to really succeeded. And Indy IV was PG-13, so not entirely family orientated.
oh, come on... which parents actually thought Indiana Jones would be too risque for their kids? considering the franchise, i bet parents were dragging their kids to that one

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by silversurfer19 on Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:15 am

Actually, I gotta say I don't know many people who's kids went to see Indy IV. Most of the audience I went with were adult. And none of my friends took their kids either. I'm not saying kids didn't go to see it, but maybe it wasn't entirely orientated towards families, where in fact it was orientated towards the nostalgic groups. I'm not sure, just pointing out some things I noticed.

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by Buscemi on Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:19 am

Yeah, most people who saw Indiana Jones were teens and adults. Around that time, children were either seeing Iron Man or Prince Caspian (or as the actor's accent said, Prince Gaspian).

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by silversurfer19 on Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:20 am

Buscemi wrote:Yeah, most people who saw Indiana Jones were teens and adults. Around that time, children were either seeing Iron Man or Prince Caspian (or as the actor's accent said, Prince Gaspian).

And at least seven kids in the US were watching Speed Racer too.

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by Buscemi on Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:24 am

silversurfer19 wrote:
Buscemi wrote:Yeah, most people who saw Indiana Jones were teens and adults. Around that time, children were either seeing Iron Man or Prince Caspian (or as the actor's accent said, Prince Gaspian).

And at least seven kids in the US were watching Speed Racer too.

Before their parents made them walk after the eighth or ninth fake ending simply because they couldn't take eight more hours of Skittle-colored acid trips.

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by NSpan on Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:35 am

silversurfer19 wrote:Actually, I gotta say I don't know many people who's kids went to see Indy IV. Most of the audience I went with were adult. And none of my friends took their kids either. I'm not saying kids didn't go to see it, but maybe it wasn't entirely orientated towards families, where in fact it was orientated towards the nostalgic groups. I'm not sure, just pointing out some things I noticed.
yeah, but let's keep in mind that you live in bizarro world where toilets flush in two different ways and you have a place called "Taumatawhakatangihangakoauauotamateaturipukakapikimaungahoronukupokaiwhenuakitanatahu"... so let's not confuse your experience of things with what people do in the real world

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by silversurfer19 on Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:50 am

Remember though, that when you pronounce "Taumatawhakatangihangakoauauotamateaturipukakapikimaungahoronukupokaiwhenuakitanatahu" you pronounce the Ta in as an F.

And also remember, what you think is the real world is all just the workings of the Matrix. Sometimes you can spot the matrix when a glitch occurs, and you may get something like a deja vu.



As you may have guessed, The Matrix recently made it over here on VHS.


Last edited by silversurfer19 on Thu Apr 30, 2009 10:01 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by mfrendo on Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:58 am

silversurfer19 wrote:Actually, I gotta say I don't know many people who's kids went to see Indy IV. Most of the audience I went with were adult. And none of my friends took their kids either. I'm not saying kids didn't go to see it, but maybe it wasn't entirely orientated towards families, where in fact it was orientated towards the nostalgic groups. I'm not sure, just pointing out some things I noticed.

I know alot of people who took kids to Indy IV. In fact, if I remember correctly, I remember a line full of kids waiting for that movie.
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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

Post by nickb1016 on Thu Apr 30, 2009 10:06 pm

why is that everyone is forgetting the performance of Terminator 3? It opened with a 44million 3 day and 72 million 5 day over the 4th of July. After which it fell hard, dropping by over 40% for a 8 consecutive weekends. It finished with 150 million which is barely twice its 5 day start.

Terminator 2 did 204million or 349 million when adjusted for inflation. Terminator 4 is clearly a reboot scenario. This will post solid numbers but not near what people are projecting. Its thursday and friday grosses will be impressive but Night at the Museam should be the winner over saturday, sunday, and monday.

Night at the Museam on the other hand is a follow up to a huge family hit. The first museam was well recieved by families and most of them will likely be returning for this. Also think about the current trend of escapism at the marketplace. Movies about overweight mall cops, bromances, fast cars, cat fights, crazy brides, cross dressing grandmas, and super spys have excelled. While films about corporate espionage, shopping problems, evil banks, and vigilante superheroes have dissappointed. What is more likely to succeed? A post apocalyptic story of people fighting to save humanity or a fantasy film like night at the museam? I know people are going to say the dark knight was serious and did serious business but in a year like this when Watchmen can be out grossed by Paul Blart, it is clear that people are looking for lighter entertainment.

My prediction is for 95million 5 day for terminator and a 210 million finish and a 90 million 4 day for museam.

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Re: Terminator 4 or Night at the Museum 2?

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