March 13-15 tracking

JackO wrote:FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $22.1M

JackO wrote:Mason's numbers

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/11/final-tracking-2/

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $22.1M
3. NEW - The Last House on the Left (Universal) - $18.2M
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail (Lionsgate) - $5.7M
5. Taken (Fox) - $5.23M
6. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) - $5.13M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5.07M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $2.59M
9. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $2.08M
10. Coraline (Focus) - $2.07M

I agree.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:

1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $22.75M

I think RtWM might be a little higher, but these look pretty accurate.

No matter its final opening-weekend numbers, if Watchmen manages to exceed $22M in its second weekend, I will be very, very surprised... I shouldn't at all be surprised to see Watchmen drop substantially -- even massively -- in its next several weeks in release... I'm going to lowball it here, and predict that Watchmen will struggle to top $140M, and may actually wind up in the mid-$130s... I'll give that disturbing possibility [that it will suffer a "Hellboy II-esque 70% drop in Watchmen's second weekend, all but condemning the film to the low $100Ms"] one chance in three.

...I'm still going to forecast a fairly brutal plunge for Watchmen in its second weekend: 67% or thereabouts, comparable to Dungeons & Dragons, X-Men 3, Red Planet, Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within and Cloverfield, five other genre films...that failed to appeal to the mainstream theatrical-release consumer. An American-economy-sized cliff-dive of THAT magnitude, indicating an approximate $18.5M haul in the film's second weekend, would substantially handicap Watchmen's long-term forecast, perhaps stalling the adaptation short of $115M. Again, I give this possibility one chance in three.

Around the World Roundup: ‘Watchmen’ Washes Out
by Conor Bresnan
March 11, 2009

Watchmen failed to entice an international audience to match its huge marketing blitz, extremely wide release and hype as an intended blockbuster, meeting a similar fate as Speed Racer, Max Payne and Body of Lies. In the recent past, domestic duds like The Golden Compass and Poseidon would usually hit their expected grosses overseas, but that's been a tall order lately.

Leading the weekend with a $26.6 million debut from 44 markets Watchmen was low compared to other superhero movies, which generally have smaller overseas totals than domestic. Back in June, The Incredible Hulk grabbed $30.8 million out of the gate from 38 markets and it ultimately fell short of its domestic haul. Watchmen opened at a difficult point on the calendar when local productions tend to dominate, and it lacked the name recognition of a sequel or famous comic book in most parts of the world to overcome the competition. 300 faced a similar situation two years ago, but benefitted from a staggered release schedule to optimize each territory.

Breaking the weekend down, Watchmen performed best in the United Kingdom, where it led with $4.5 million, but that was much worse than The Incredible Hulk's debut and less than half of 300's. Elsewhere, Watchmen mostly ranked second or third in each market. In France, it logged a disappointing $2.5 million, while, in Germany, it recorded a mere third-place $2 million. It squeezed out a win in South Korea, though with a poor $1.4 million start. Even action-oriented Southeast Asia was indifferent to Watchmen. Singapore was its top draw in that region with just $371,157. Latin America, another region favorable to action pictures, was off as well. Watchmen bagged only $790,771 in Brazil and $732,969 in Mexico. Next up are Greece and Hong Kong this weekend and then only Scandinavia, Japan and a few smaller markets remain on the movie's schedule.

...In Germany, [Gran Torino's] near $1 million start was decent but ranked fifth, while, in Spain, its $2.7 million debut topped fellow openers Bedtime Stories and Watchmen.

...Rising to fourth place with an 11-territory expansion, Marley and Me grossed $8.3 million from 30 markets for a $33 million total. In Germany, the comedy opened ahead of Watchmen and dethroned The Reader with $3 million from 546 screens.