Jan. 23rd Tracking

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Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by JackO on Wed Jan 21, 2009 3:57 am

MTC 1/23
-- notfabio, Jan 20, 14:03
Underworld: 26 (ironically where RS had it every week except this one)

Ink 11
Rev: 4
Frost 3.5
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by silversurfer19 on Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:24 am

Hmmm. Revolutionary Road isn't expanding too well. I was hoping for a PTA in the 8,000 region for next weekend.

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed Jan 21, 2009 6:31 am

I originally thought that there's no way Underworld can get $26 mil in it's OP.

Then I went to BOM and saw that Underworld 2 had that exact opening.

Then again, Kate Beckinsale is not in this one. A threequel that's replacing main cast members and looks like utter shit? There's no way it can match the 2nd's OP.

I'll say high teens, maybe 16-18.

(I can't be wrong two weekends in a row, right? Stupid Paul Blart.)
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by JackO on Wed Jan 21, 2009 7:20 am

Yeah I'm thinking high teens, but closer to 20M for Underworld but I wouldn't be surprised if we had another 20M+ opening next weekend.
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Wed Jan 21, 2009 7:56 am

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:I originally thought that there's no way Underworld can get $26 mil in it's OP.

Then I went to BOM and saw that Underworld 2 had that exact opening.

Then again, Kate Beckinsale is not in this one. A threequel that's replacing main cast members and looks like utter shit? There's no way it can match the 2nd's OP.

I'll say high teens, maybe 16-18.

(I can't be wrong two weekends in a row, right? Stupid Paul Blart.)

Actually Rise Of The Lycans is a prequel. That's why the Selene and Michael story isn't in this one.

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by J-Man on Wed Jan 21, 2009 12:19 pm

Last week most people thought that Paul Blart wasn't going to go over mid teens, so who knows, perhaps Underworld will be an overachiever in a month of huge weekends. Although, If I was a betting man, I'd put money on 20M and a first place finish - It is being released in a large amount of theaters (2,800).

I really thought that after back to back blockbusters released within a month of each other that Brenden Frasier and Inkheart would be a big January earner, but I haven't seen many ads, and it isn't tracking very well (which is why I dropped it from my slates). Frasier is a draw in family friendly action films, but I guess being released near a similarly themed film didn't help it.

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:10 am

Anything from Steve Mason today?

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by Slade605 on Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:50 am

Shrykespeare wrote:Anything from Steve Mason today?

Right here.

http://www.slashfilm.com/2009/01/22/box-office-tracking-underworld-rise-of-the-lycans-could-reach-24m/

I have to say I think Sony has done just an ok job of promoting this new Underworld flick. Sure it's a prequel and doesn't feature the original sexy babe that helped boost a series that is essentially just a poor man's Blade but the fx look just a slick as the first two and Lycans features Beckinsale doppelganger Rhona Mitra who, for my money, is equally sexy if not more and really, isn't that what these movies are about? A hot chick in leather killing vampires and werewolves.

And yet she's barely featured in the tv and web ads. Instead we get beard guy channeling Leonidas. (This! Is! Lycans!)

I think Sony could have played up what they had a bit more and maybe squeezed a few million more out of opening weekend. We'll see.
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by JackO on Fri Jan 23, 2009 2:27 am

Here are Mason's numbers;

FINAL WEEKEND 3-DAY PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 23-25
1. NEW – Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $24.34M
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $17M
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $13.5M
4. NEW – Inkheart (Warner Bros) - $13.2M
5. Hotel For Dogs (Paramount) - $10.5M
6. My Bloody Valentine 3D (Lionsgate) - $9.9M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $8.9M
8. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $8.25M
9. Bride Wars (Fox) - $5.85M
10. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $4.75M
11. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) - $4.5M
12. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.4M
13. The Unborn (Universal) - $3.5M
14. Frost/Nixon (Universal) - $3.35M

I think they all seem pretty much on the nose or very close to the nose.
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Fri Jan 23, 2009 2:34 am

Wow, $24 million? In that case, I'm putting Underworld on every slate that I didn't ALREADY have it in.

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by J.I. on Fri Jan 23, 2009 2:40 am

All of the Oscar films (Slumdog Millionaire, The Dark Knight, The Wrestler, Frost/Nixon) are going wider than planned, except for Revolutionary Road.
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by silversurfer19 on Fri Jan 23, 2009 5:33 am

I'm interested to see how Paul Blart does this weekend as since Monday it has completely died. 78% drop on Tuesday followed by a 25% on Wednesday. I know it will receive a weekend bump, but how much?

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by J.I. on Fri Jan 23, 2009 7:00 am

Its a kids movie after a four day weekend. The Tuesday-Thursday numbers were supposed to be bad. Just the fact that it is still #1 is great.
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by silversurfer19 on Fri Jan 23, 2009 7:04 am

Actually, Gran Torino is no.1 for Wednesday.

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by JackO on Fri Jan 23, 2009 8:16 am

I think Blart's fall will be steep but Notorious' and My Bloody Valentines will also be pretty hefty.
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by JackO on Sat Jan 24, 2009 2:53 pm

Mason's estimates are up!

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/01/24/estimates-3/

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $7.6M, $2,583 PTA, $7.6M cume
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $5.5M, $1,749 PTA, $48.8M cume
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $4.2M, $1,379, $85.77M cume
4. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $2.9M, $1,144 PTA, $30.57M cume
5. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $2.8M, $1,706 PTA, $28.89M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $2.6M, $1,843 PTA, $47.96M cume
7. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $2.4M, $734 PTA, $27M cume
8. NEW – Inkheart (Warner Bros) - $2.1M, $791 PTA, $2.1M cume
9. Bride Wars (Fox) - $1.9M, $725 PTA, $43.6M cume
10. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $1.6M, $707 PTA, $106.64M cume
11. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.53M, $1,446 PTA, $8.12M
12. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $1.51M, $1,446 PTA, $8.12M cume
13. The Unborn (Rogue) - $1.3M, $617 PTA, $36.17M cume
14. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) - $1.1M, $1,943 PTA, $6.91M cume
15. Frost/Nixon (Universal) - $900,000, $819 PTA, $9.88M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $19.75M, $6,713 PTA, $19.75M cume
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $18.1M, $5,757 PTA, $61.4M cume
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $15.53M, $5,100, $97.1M cume
4. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $9.84M, $3,008 PTA, $34.43M cume
5. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $9.36M, $6,634 PTA, $57.25M cume
6. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $8.7M, $3,433 PTA, $36.37M cume
7. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $8.5M, $5,180 PTA, $34.59M cume
8. NEW – Inkheart (Warner Bros) - $7.55M, $2,844 PTA, $7.55M cume
9. Bride Wars (Fox) - $6.75M, $2,575 PTA, $48.45M cume
10. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $5.76M, $2,545 PTA, $110.8M cume
11. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5.31M, $5,019 PTA, $11.9M
12. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $5.1M, $2,844 PTA, $18M cume
13. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) - $3.96M, $6,996 PTA, $9.77M cume
14. The Unborn (Rogue) - $4.29M, $2,036 PTA, $39.16M cume
15. Frost/Nixon (Universal) - $3.24M, $2,948 PTA, $12.22M cume

Slumdog in the TOP 5! WOOT! and 3 more PTA points (possibly!!)

The Wrestler is huge PTA wise as well, I think that is 23, if the estimates hold up!
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by J.I. on Sat Jan 24, 2009 10:01 pm

Not good for Notorious, My Bloody Valentine, or Frost/Nixon.
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Sat Jan 24, 2009 10:24 pm

Wow. If those numbers hold, that means 5 more PTA points for The Wrestler, depending on if Killshot does anything.

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by MisterInformative on Sat Jan 24, 2009 10:40 pm

Yeah, it's not good for Notorious or MBV3D, but those were both movies where you could see the huge drop coming. It's totally expected. As for Frost/Nixon, 1099 screens still isn't THAT wide. And it hasn't been as high profile as Slumdog (especially at the Golden Globes; maybe it'll pick up some SAG awards tonight), so I'd expect it'll just quietly keep bringing in small numbers like that.
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Sat Jan 24, 2009 10:59 pm

Didn't expect Inkheart to bomb that bad. Finally a weekend that actually resembles January!

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Sun Jan 25, 2009 12:24 am

A LOT of people ditched Inkheart in the last week. Not everyone, though... No

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Sun Jan 25, 2009 2:12 am

The only place I had it was the draft league. Well that's the only place I had it that I have any real interest in anyway.

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Sun Jan 25, 2009 4:40 am

And it looks like you're still getting your ass kicked, Marley Hater.

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by JackO on Sun Jan 25, 2009 4:41 am

Numbers for limited release films from MCN:http://moviecitynews.com/

Outlander
17,200

81

-

17,200


Killshot

3,600

5

-

3,600


The Lodger
1,300

5

-

1,300

Of Time and the City
1,300

1

-

1,300


Donkey Punch
1,300

1

-

1,300

Barring a big Saturday bounce, they all seem like nonstarters to me.
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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Sun Jan 25, 2009 4:46 am

Buscemi, everyone in that league is getting their ass kicked to you! Marley, Gran Torino and Yes Man are a lethal combination. Great job!

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Re: Jan. 23rd Tracking

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