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January Studs/Duds

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Post by MisterInformative Fri Jan 09, 2009 1:11 pm

This will be a bare bones version, because I think the winners and losers are pretty clear cut this month. I'll start with just the upcoming weekend, but I'll add to this post over the weekend with my thoughts on the rest of the month.

Weekend of Jan. 9
Stud: Bride Wars. The comparisons to 27 Dresses are easily made, and I think they are valid. Though this is just another archetypal role for Kate Hudson, those sell -- Fool's Gold last February comes to mind. Another $20 million or so on opening weekend (Fool's Gold made $21 million) and a weekend win are virtually certain. And it should hold up well throughout the month, until February, when He's Just Not That Into You comes along to win over the Valentine's crowd.
Dud: Not Easily Broken. It falls victim to the purgatory of screen counts -- 724 this weekend, still fewer than Four Christmases (which will be at 777) in its 7th weekend. (Yikes, that's a lot of 7's.) That means that box office revenue will be hard to come by, and it may not even crack the top 10 -- especially with Oscar bait Slumdog Millionaire and Doubt performing well in wide release, and Gran Torino set to expand very wide this weekend. I also wouldn't go anywhere near this in Ultimate leagues because, as we all well know by now, the fact that it features African-American actors means it'll probably take a hit in the IMDb department.
Wild Card: The Unborn. So, question. Does anyone else think that, if you glance at the poster quickly enough, Odette Yustman looks sort of like Megan Fox? (Apologies for the huge image:)

January Studs/Duds Unborn1_large
Take the tagline off, change the release date, slap a Fox Atomic logo on it, and you could almost have the second teaser poster for Jennifer's Body, right?

Also, Rogue Pictures is milking the fact that David Goyer wrote The Dark Knight for all it's worth. Clearly this won't be the same, but most people who follow movies more intently might be willing to give The Unborn a shot because of that (and because, like Sara Lee pastries, it seems almost nobody doesn't like Gary Oldman). We also haven't had a wide-release horror flick since, believe it or not, The Haunting of Molly Hartley, all the way back on Halloween. So, mild success is in the cards, but remember, this is January. Don't expect too much.

Weekend of Jan. 16
Stud: My Bloody Valentine 3D. Regardless of if it's a terrible movie overall, 3D sells, and it'll only run you $5 in both Ultimate and Box Office. Heck, even the practically-amateur Fly Me to the Moon raked in $12 million in exclusively 3D theaters this past summer (at its widest, it played in 713 theaters); My Bloody Valentine has the benefit, similar to Journey to the Center of the Earth, of playing in standard 2D format as well. And of course, if The Unborn's PG-13 rating is just too tame, My Bloody Valentine will provide plenty of sex and gore for those fans of the hard R rating. A first place finish for the weekend is very possible.
Dud: Notorious, for the same reason as Not Easily Broken, will have an undeservedly poor IMDb rating. That said, I don't think this should be completely counted out, but of anything being released next weekend, I can see more compelling reasons for everything else to succeed. Notorious will be a niche success, but not anything you couldn't get from spending an equal amount of money for practically anything in February (Pink Panther 2, Confessions of a Shopaholic, Friday the 13th).
Wild Card: Hotel for Dogs. I really can't get a good read on this one. On the one hand, it's got the Nickelodeon logo on it, which means that (and I think someone else has said this previously) most kids will be very well aware of it. However, does 'another dog movie' so soon after Marley & Me have any chance at success? DreamWorks is promoting the crap out of it (by an agreement with some theater chains, it's a mandatory 'project picture,' complete with media cross-promotion and all-out lobby displays), but that might be a last-ditch effort to squeeze a little more revenue out of it. (Also, that may be a record for number of hyphenated words in one sentence.) My biggest fear is that the old adage that "Don Cheadle doesn't make bad movies" will be tested...


Last edited by MisterInformative on Fri Jan 09, 2009 1:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Buscemi Fri Jan 09, 2009 1:23 pm

Where's the rest?
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Post by MisterInformative Fri Jan 09, 2009 1:30 pm

I just put up the weekend of the 16th; I'll update the others throughout the weekend. I figured it was most important to have the weekend of the 9th out by the 9th, ya know?
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Post by geezer9687 Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:40 pm

Yeah, I thought she looked like Megan Fox when I first saw the trailer. They are both gorgeous. Didn't even realize she was Beth from Cloverfield until I looked her up.
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Post by SuperShaan Fri Jan 09, 2009 9:51 pm

The Unborn just looks like One Missed Call to me, it will probably do the same numbers.
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Post by Shrykespeare Fri Jan 09, 2009 9:54 pm

I wouldn't go THAT far, Shaan.

David S. Goyer and Gary Oldman have a little more star power than Edward Burns. Actually, make that a lot.
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Post by SuperShaan Fri Jan 09, 2009 10:25 pm

Its pretty much a guarantee Gary Oldman (one of my absolute Favourite actors) will be underused. David S. Goyer is a very good writer, but the only movie I've seen him direct was Blade Trinity, which was crap. I showed my friends the trailer of the Unborn and the only reason they may consider seeing this movie is for Odette Wink
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Post by JackO Sat Jan 10, 2009 12:44 am

Great stuff Mr. I!
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Post by Buscemi Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:32 am

Odette Yustman is quite pretty. Shows what you can do with mixed ancestry (she's half Cuban, a quarter Italian and a quarter French).
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Post by MisterInformative Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:36 am

This poster shows her off a little bit more than the rain-soaked scream:

January Studs/Duds Unborn2_large
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Post by Buscemi Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:44 am

That kid looks like a 1950's era bootlegger in the South. Deliverance meets The Exorcist?
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Post by MisterInformative Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:16 am

Weekend of Jan. 23
Holy hell, this is a pretty bare weekend, yeesh.

Stud: Underworld: Rise of the Lycans. Personally, I've never cared about this franchise, and even if I had, the departure of Kate Beckinsale for the third installment might be enough to dissuade me from seeing it. However, I'm not always representative of the general public, and that's why I think that, especially given the lack of real competition here, Underworld can potentially pull out a weekend win. The last one opened to $26 million in the same January time slot, so if Rise of the Lycans manages even a number in the high teens, that could be enough to take the top spot.
Dud: Possession. This was supposed to come out last year (multiple times), but has been delayed until now. That in itself is a bad sign, but it's not the only one: the illustrious Yari Film Group produced and is distributing. Couple both of those facts with the glut of better-promoted and, most likely, higher quality horror films that has been mentioned multiple times on these boards, and I see Possession being quickly forgotten, except for the Buffy the Vampire Slayer fanatics that see it repeatedly. It's not even worth the imaginary pennies you could spend on it.
Wild Card: Inkheart. This, too, was delayed -- it was originally supposed to come out last March, but I suppose the cosmic cinematic powers determined that a triple helping of Brendan Fraser in one calendar year would be too much for American audiences to handle. And just like last March, I'm a little wary of the movie's prospects. Back then, I was worried it would be crushed under the figurative (and literal, I suppose) weight of Horton the elephant, and now, my skepticism could best be portrayed in the form of a question: does anyone care? Maybe some people do, and they'll turn out -- after all, family movies are among the hardest to predict performance for. My gut feeling is that this has been on the shelf too long, but if anything does surprisingly well, it'll be Inkheart, not Possession or Killshot.
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Post by Buscemi Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:31 am

Here's another reason why Possession will flop: the Yari Film Group filed for bankruptcy last month. This means that the film will arrive without any ads or awareness and likely won't even be tracked (similar to What Doesn't Kill You and Nothing But The Truth from last month). Could we be seeing another Delgo (which interestingly enough starred Gellar's husband Freddie Prinze Jr.)?
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Post by MisterInformative Mon Jan 12, 2009 11:02 am

I'd almost say worse than Delgo, if that's even possible -- because I know that was record-setting bad. However, I'm unsure Possession will be able to command that number of screens opening weekend. Anyway...

Weekend of Jan. 30

Stud: The Uninvited. Here's a list of the past few Super Bowl weekends:

2008 -- The Eye, $12.4 million, opened at #2 (behind Hannah Montana).
2007 -- The Messengers, $14.7 million, opened at #1.
2006 -- When a Stranger Calls, $21.6 million, opened at #1 (with a then-Super-Bowl-weekend record).
2005 -- Boogeyman, $19.0 million, opened at #1.

See where I'm going with this? Teen horror flicks like The Uninvited are traditionally strong (or at least relatively so) on Super Bowl weekend. I think another $15-20 million could be in store here, despite The Unborn coming out just 3 weeks prior -- the aim is to pull in an audience that doesn't care so much about the Super Bowl and may want to get out of the house while dad has buddies over to tailgate. Of course, the other demographic of that target audience (represented by other past Super Bowl weekend releases as Because I Said So and The Wedding Date) is the chick flick crowd of primarily women. However, I'll go against the historical success of these kinds of movies with...
Dud: New In Town. Dammit, Renee Zellweger, stop squinting! Every time you appear anywhere, you're squinting! Get some frickin' sunglasses already!* This movie, formerly titled Chilled in Miami (which doesn't make much sense, although the new title is barf-inducingly generic) would be a good pick if it were cheap (as it was in earlier seasons where it was a cutoff bargain), but with an elevated price tag, I wouldn't take a chance. I just have a feeling people jonesing (and no, that is NOT a reference to Zellweger's previous filmography) for a romantic comedy will wait for He's Just Not That Into You one week later. The cast there has greater star power and better looks, for one, and for two, it's closer to Valentine's Day.
Wild Card: Taken. It has also been postponed, which is generally a bad sign, but seeing the trailers makes me think maybe it's not that bad. I mean, there's always room for some badassery, right? And that's precisely what it looks like Liam Neeson is going to lay down. Perhaps a bad move to release an adrenaline movie like this on Super Bowl weekend; the Sunday take will be abysmal. Taken may be able to overcome that, but the long delay is a nagging thorn in the side, so this could really go either way.

*This rant brought to you by the Hate Renee Zellweger Foundation.
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Post by Donte77 Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:44 pm

MisterInformative wrote:
Weekend of Jan. 30

Stud: The Uninvited. Here's a list of the past few Super Bowl weekends:

2008 -- The Eye, $12.4 million, opened at #2 (behind Hannah Montana).
2007 -- The Messengers, $14.7 million, opened at #1.
2006 -- When a Stranger Calls, $21.6 million, opened at #1 (with a then-Super-Bowl-weekend record).
2005 -- Boogeyman, $19.0 million, opened at #1.

See where I'm going with this? Teen horror flicks like The Uninvited are traditionally strong (or at least relatively so) on Super Bowl weekend. I think another $15-20 million could be in store here, despite The Unborn coming out just 3 weeks prior -- the aim is to pull in an audience that doesn't care so much about the Super Bowl and may want to get out of the house while dad has buddies over to tailgate.

This is why he is Mister Informative. Who else knows this kind of shit?!?!

Nice picks Mr. I.
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