The "Harry Potter 6 Will Outgross Transformers 2" Club

Anyone in? I've got HP6 getting somewhere around $315 mil or so, and I think Transformers will have a huge OW while falling hard and ending up somewhere around $290-$305.

It's Voldemort vs. The Fallen? Whodya got?



Wizards and Wands. Robots and Megan Fox. Two will enter. One will leave.

Out. Out. Out. Everything is going right for Transformers 2. Transformers 2 is tracking gigantic because excitement is crazy for this movie, its vastly vastly outselling HP on Fandango, HP moved its IMAX to get out of the way for Transformers 2, this club came at the wrong time.

And you do realize the original Transformers was able to beat Harry Potter, right?

In. Harry Potter has the perfect release date and it faces nothing of any importance until G.I. Joe on August 7th. Also, the die-hards are sure to see it more than once. Meanwhile, Transformers must face Ice Age and Public Enemies one week later and it has the potential to be like Spider-Man 3 from two years ago (huge opening, fair to poor word of mouth, huge drops after opening weekend).

Also, Star Trek had the same thing happen with IMAX as most of those theatres dropped it for Night At The Museum after two weeks. But Star Trek still happens to have the bigger gross despite that handicap.

I'm in. Transformers opens very big but can it hold?

J.I. wrote:Out. Out. Out. Everything is going right for Transformers 2. Transformers 2 is tracking gigantic because excitement is crazy for this movie, its vastly vastly outselling HP on Fandango, HP moved its IMAX to get out of the way for Transformers 2, this club came at the wrong time.

And you do realize the original Transformers was able to beat Harry Potter, right?

The IMAX deal actually helps HP6. This way, all the fans will see it as soon as possible on regular screens, and then go back to see it in partial 3D IMAX.

And yeah, in 2007, Transformers beat HP5. But I think the anticipation for HP6 is greater than 5, just like anticipation for both 7 movies will be higher than 6. And TF2 is sounding way too much like Spider-Man 3 for my tastes.

(But I will be watching both )

I'm out. I can't bet against Transformers.

I'm more looking forward to HP6, but I'm not in. T2 will gross more.

Umm... Harry Potter has a chance at $300 M (only been done once). Transformers has a shot at $400 M... No brainer.

W wrote:Umm... Harry Potter has a chance at $300 M (only been done once). Transformers has a shot at $400 M... No brainer.

I'm willing to bet half of my face that Tf2 doesn't hit $400M

im out. I think Transformers will outgross Potter.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:

W wrote:Umm... Harry Potter has a chance at $300 M (only been done once). Transformers has a shot at $400 M... No brainer.

I'm willing to bet half of my face that Tf2 doesn't hit $400M

You don't think it has a SHOT at it? I don't think it'll hit it, but if something looks like a decent bet to hit $350 M (the first one hit $320 M and sequels tend to outgross), it's not crazy to say it has a shot at $400 M.

Maybe Worldwide but not Domestically.

Well considering the last one made over $700 million worldwide I would say this one has a good shot at $400 million, JackO. (yeah I know you mean internationally).

The last movie had an A grade on CinemaScore. People really liked it. If this one gets word of mouth saying that its better and more epic than the first one, it could very well hit $400 million. Besides, its not unprecedented (Pirates of the Caribbean, Batman Begins, Shrek)

W wrote:

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:

W wrote:Umm... Harry Potter has a chance at $300 M (only been done once). Transformers has a shot at $400 M... No brainer.

I'm willing to bet half of my face that Tf2 doesn't hit $400M

You don't think it has a SHOT at it? I don't think it'll hit it, but if something looks like a decent bet to hit $350 M (the first one hit $320 M and sequels tend to outgross), it's not crazy to say it has a shot at $400 M.

Yeah, I guess it has a shot. But only if it's better than the first. Which I don't think it will be.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:

W wrote:

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:

W wrote:Umm... Harry Potter has a chance at $300 M (only been done once). Transformers has a shot at $400 M... No brainer.

I'm willing to bet half of my face that Tf2 doesn't hit $400M

You don't think it has a SHOT at it? I don't think it'll hit it, but if something looks like a decent bet to hit $350 M (the first one hit $320 M and sequels tend to outgross), it's not crazy to say it has a shot at $400 M.

Yeah, I guess it has a shot. But only if it's better than the first. Which I don't think it will be.

Only betting a quarter of your face now?